Экономические науки/15.Государственное регулирование экономики

Аспирант Дугужев И.Б.

Кабардино-Балкарская государственная сельскохозяйственная академия, Россия

Franklin: war and the world.

Borders of protectionism.

At the moment, despite of criticism of national economies protectionism measures, the steady tendency to use of mechanisms of maintenance of "Ours" in struggle with "another's" is observed. For anybody not a secret, that the Central Banks of the cores of economy of the World try to achieve advantages to national manufacturers. It is quite natural and is proved, if not one "BUT": For whose account? Each action causes counteraction. Currency wars inflame. In these wars the special weapon - devaluation is used. Use of this mechanism by industrially developed countries is noted twice in 20 century.

The first currency war was restoration and crash of the gold standard in 1921-1936 which has played the role in Great depression. The second currency war has burst after refusal from Bretton Wood bindings of dollar to gold which has come to the end with economic shocks and has sent the world in an inflationary spiral in 1970. It is possible to consider as the beginning of the third currency war date of decrease in the rate of refinancing of Federal Reserve System up to 0-0,25 in 2008г. It is possible to consider this event historical as it has served as the trigger mechanism to start of a devaluation spiral worldwide. The purpose of the given action quite noble - maintenance экономки, however in a compartment with increase in issue of dollar leads to essential decrease in its exchange rate, that in turn puts the American exporters in more favourable position in comparison with the European commodity producers. However main "enemy" - China has appeared is still impregnable. Rigid regulation of a rate yuans Bank of China allows to keep strongly underestimated rate. At par consumer ability the yuan in relation to dollar is underestimated on 25-30 %.

Developing countries.

The American senate has approved the bill of sanctions against the countries manipulating rates of exchange, - the measure is directed particularly against China. The Central Banks of the USA, the Great Britain and Japan have printed record volumes of monetary weight, or openly pursuing the purpose of easing of own currencies, or receiving decrease in a rate as a favorable by-effect. The countries fight for competitive advantage to soften epicritic economic problems. Similar measures first of all strike on developing countries as available assets by definition should be put in something, and in developing markets of an investment it is more favourable. Hence, in developing markets will put all the same means, and local currencies will continue to become stronger. Thus, all measures on understating exchange rates of developing countries will have the limited character.

Now base rates are in many developed countries of the world on historical minima. At the same time in developing economy they remain rather high - to lower them it is impossible because of inflation. Such break enables investors to earn practically without risks: they took credits in the developed countries, and then put these means in developing.

Inflation or growth?

To struggle against main currency enemy FRS has applied the new tool - the program of quantitative mitigation. The given program consists in the repayment of bonds for alive money. A source of financing is "press". Increasing monetary weight, FRS compels China to print new yuans for maintenance of a binding to dollar. - Now China imports inflation from the USA through the mechanism of a binding of a rate whereas exported to the USA a deflation » earlier. With start of the program of the price in China have steadily spread upwards and the Bank of China had to choose: inflation or economic growth. The Peoples Republic of China has declared struggle against inflation by the main priority in a monetary and credit policy. Norms of reservation for commercial banks of China have been raised. The measure has worked and in December growth of inflation in China was slowed down up to a 15-month's minimum, and the rise in prices of manufacturers has appeared minimal for 2 years. For 2011 it has made about 5,5%, and in 2012 the Center of researches of development at the State Council of the Peoples Republic of China expects mid-annual inflation at a level of 4,5 %. It leaves to the government more and more than space for support of economic growth. Delay of rates of economic growth in China occurred gradually within all 2011. In the first quarter growth of Chinese gross national product made 9,7 %, in the second 9,5 %, in the third 9,1 %, and in the fourth, less than 8,5 %.

On the beginning of current year it is possible to approve, that China is ready to new impact FRS the USA. A question only in what it will be? March data on economy of the USA allow to look ahead with optimism, especially if to consider the application of chapter FRS of Ben Bernanke, that till 2014 the base rate in the USA remains on historical minima (0-0,25 % a year). Acceptance of new measures of quantitative mitigation is the most probable. Most likely, Fed reserve the USA while doubts, in fact one business buying up of "toxic" actives in conditions of threat of a deflation and absolutely another start of a press in conditions of accruing inflationary pressure. Already FRS should choose: Inflation or Economy?

Литература:

1. The Financial Times.

2. Bloomberg

3. «Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis» The author James Rickards

4. Societe Generale

5. The Center of researches of development at the State Council of the Peoples Republic of China

6. РИА Новости