Kristin A. Davydova, Vladimir A. Maslov
Penza State University, Russia
Typology
of interstate crises
Bilateral
relations characterized by constant conflict, which is sort of an expression of
inter-state tension caused by a clash of national interests in various spheres
of activity in the international arena.
Very
often an international conflict is identified with the international crisis,
but in fact the relation of international conflict and crisis is relation of
the whole and parts. The international crisis is just one of the possible
phases of the conflict. (1) Immediately prior to the crisis caused by the
development of interstate conflict, and represents a turning point, which is a
kind of a critical milestone in the evolution of inter-state conflict, but at
the same time it is not mandatory inevitable phase. (2)
The
second half of the 20th century was marked by a succession of international
political crises that have taken place against a background of acute
ideological and military confrontation between the two systems - the capitalist
and socialist. By analyzing some of these crises it is possible to highlight
certain similarities and differences in the origin, course and end the crisis,
which allows us to formulate a typology of inter-state crises of the 20th
century.
Certain
criteria of international crisis typology can be identified.
First
is the origin, what are causes of the crisis. Second is development, proceeding
of crisis. Third is ending of a crisis, what is its isolation and its consequences.
And as a fourth criterion takes the whole set of factors and conditions that
affect both the origins, course, and at the end of the crisis.
The
origin, the long-term (historical) reasons which led to the crisis is defining
characteristic in the first group of criteria.
The
most of post-war international crises caused by the political-ideological and
geopolitical rivalry between states in the world. Such crises can be caused by
the desire to preserve and spread its influence in a particular country or a
group of countries. Some crises were caused by the desire to achieve the status
of a number of regional centers of power. Various forms of the struggle of
national self-determination for ethnic communities and territorial disputes can
also be called as a reason why there are inter-state crises.
The
potential ability of states to actively pursue its policy of crisis is very
important for the escalation of international conflict. According to this
criterion can be identified crises, whose members have relatively equal state
capacity, or with respect to an unequal state capacity, or have overwhelming
superiority over the enemy.
An
important aspect in the study of international crisis is a direct mechanism of
their origin. Such an arrangement "is a concrete historical combination of
intra - and external factors and conditions which, in conjunction with the
goals and motives of government circles, opponents led to a sharp deterioration
of relations prior to the conflict and the subsequent emergence of political-military
crisis." (3)
The
main component of the mechanism of international political crises are launching
acts of crisis situations, which include "specific events, actions or
situational changes, bearing the provocative nature, perceived by other states
as an obvious challenge to their vital national interests, and giving rise to a
response action (verbal or practical ), which leads to a crisis. "(3)
Such
acts are very diverse and can be violent or nonviolent.
Development
(flow) of the various military and political crises are not the same and one of
the defining moments of this is the place and role of war and violence in the
course of the crisis.
According
to this criterion, the crises may occur predominantly in the form of political
and diplomatic confrontation, without armed violence and the use of military
means in the form of non-violent in order to exert pressure on the opponent and
forcing him to make concessions.
And
finally the last stage of the crisis - is the result, how has been resolved the
situation. The crisis can ends by formal agreement or even informal, covert
agreement, unilateral conciliatory action, without any formal or informal
agreements between opposing parties and the most undesirable outcome -
escalating into armed conflict or war.
As a
generalization, next factors and conditions which have a significant impact on
the overall political-military crisis can be listed: its origin, development
and completion. In this group, the determining factor is the nature of the preceding
inter-state relations. Based on this criterion states that crises arise and
develop in the long-standing relationship or conflict arise in the
concrete-specific contentious issue.
Crisis
can be divided into global, regional, sub according to the role and place of
the crisis in the general system of international relations.
It
is possible to say that each of the types and kinds of inter-ethnic crises have
certain characteristics, and can be constructive or destructive in the
development of political processes. Therefore It is important to know these
features in order to properly orient the political situation, as a rule, very
volatile, dynamic, and take a thoughtful political position.
Literature
:
1.
Muntean, M.A. Fundamentals of the Theory of International Relations, 2007
2.
Lavrenov, S.Y. Popov, I.M. Soviet Union in local wars and conflicts. - Moscow:
ACT; Astrel, 2003 page 456
3.
Lavrenov S.Y. Popov, I.M. Soviet Union in local wars and conflicts. - Moscow:
ACT; Astrel, 2003 page 469.