Политология/
10. Региональные политические
процессы
Doctor of History Fatima Kukeyeva
Ainur Sultangaliyeva
Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Kazakhstan
Major Challenges to the Central Asian Regional Cooperation after 2014
After twenty
years of independence, we are in a position to analyze the state of Central
Asia’s regional cooperation. Although there are many challenges to regional
cooperation, it is vitally important for the sustainable development of Central
Asia and the surrounding region. Central Asia’s potential for regional
cooperation can be harnessed to transform the region into a transport hub
between Europe and Asia, helping to fulfill a number of important objectives. The integration
will open up new possibilities for more efficient use of their transportation
and logistics capacity. By some experts’ estimation, Kazakhstan does not use
even 10% of its transit potential. The combined uses of transit facilities in
Central Asia are even less significant. Meanwhile, the clever use of transit potential
will contribute significant additional injections into the budget, comparable
to the income from oil and gas production.
Today the academic community continues to discuss
opportunities for and challenges to
regional cooperation. It has
become clear that effective cooperation requires the following important
factors: shared vision regarding the purpose and value of cooperation, joint
identification of common opportunities and challenges, political will to cooperate, and inter-state trust [1].
All challenges can be classified into two levels: the
first being the Central Asia region traditionally defined as the five former
Soviet republics, the second—a broader region encompassing Central Asia and
neighbors like Afghanistan.
At the first level there are a number of bilateral and
multilateral issues that could be characterized as an internal to the region,
including: the internal political and socio-economic problems of some Central Asian
states, the growing problem of resources such as food and water on a regional
scope, the increase in politicized religious activity, demographic and migration processes, which
have cross-border effects, and the existence and the escalation of illegal
activities, like drug trafficking and
smuggling. The specific challenges keeping
Central Asian states from integration: the
difference in Central Asian states positions on the key issues of integration;
different levels of the economic development. Central Asian states has split-level and multispeed
economy, the limiting factor for regional integration; lack of consensus about
rational use of water energy resources; poor development of
regional trade; poor management of the shared
natural resources. All these and other
problems could be resolved only by Central Asian countries among themselves.
On the second level, the broader Central Asia region
includes and is surrounded by several important regional powers as Russia,
China, EU and has considerable geopolitical importance. The prospects for
turning the broader Central Asia region into a land bridge on the Eurasian
continent will depend on collaboration among the countries of the region
themselves and on the policies of outside actors.
In this regard we should not forget about the negative impact on regional
security and cooperation of the so-called "Great Game" being waged
between major geopolitical actors for the restoration or establishment of
regional influence. The interests of these "players" are diverse and
often opposite, making consensus among them unlikely. Most likely in the near
future we will see increased competition between great powers (Russia, USA,
China, EU). The competition mostly takes the form of control over
energy and export routes of Central Asia and Eurasia. For example, Northern Distribution Network and the expanded US presence in
Afghanistan will impact the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia. Key transit
states will enjoy new leverage over Washington while others could apply
pressure indirectly partners’ behavior unpredictable and increasing the degree
of mistrust toward. It is the desire of regional leaders to play on the
contradictions between geopolitical "players" decreases the level of
regional security by making the Central asian states on the international
community.
In this contextual framework the
main problem for the region’s countries is the fact that increased competition
between major geopolitical actors will force Central Asian countries to
articulate their foreign policy priorities, which will significantly narrow the
room for maneuvering and limit the opportunities of multi-vector foreign
policy.
There are number of Common and shared
challenges such as:
Trade and access to world markets.
Trade, both within Central Asia and between Central
Asian states and the rest of the world, continues to be troubled by numerous
barriers: complex trade policies that are badly coordinated and lack of
transparency; high costs from poor transport and transit conditions, etc. [2]
Business and Investment climate.
The investment climate remains relatively poor in some
countries, characterized by confusing laws and regulations.
For instance, economic indicators and investment climate of Kyrgyzstan
are directly intertwined with the political situation in the country [3].
Management of shared natural resources.
Management of the shared natural resources will help
to balance the uneven distribution of them and to avoid potential conflicts in
this sphere [4].
In the environmental sphere, perhaps the greatest challenge to be faced
is the management of regional water resources between competing demands for
human consumption, irrigation, industrial use and the generation of
electricity.
For instance, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan have considerable
potential to produce hydroelectric power potential for exports, while countries
downstream depend on the same water for irrigation.
Social development and Poverty Reduction remain one of the major
challenges. According
to the UN Human Development Reports for the region the rate of poverty remains
high throughout the region [5].
Afghanistan. The idea that the stabilization of Afghanistan needs to be framed in a
regional context is not new. More than five years ago US experts suggested developing
regional approach in facing the country’s challenges. In the new geopolitical
conditions of international reltions greater attention is devoted to the idea
of a strong non-military strategy that
engages a broader set of regional actors.
The new Silk Road Initiative stresses the need for a non-military
cooperation based on the development of trans-regional trade and transit,
including progress in the field of energy and transport cooperation with the
participation of regional countries and regional and global organizations. The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) is among the most significant international
financial institutions involved in trade and transport development.
After the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, the Central
Asian states and Russia will have to resolve the full range of issues relating
to Afghanistan. Potential problems stemming from NATO withdrawal include the
possible emergence of a new wave of Islamic radicalism and the resumption of
Islamist activity in Central Asia.
The analyses of the big
challenges that affected regional cooperation and regional development in the
wider Central Asia region should be focused on the critical connection between
these issues. In particular, it is necessary to analyze selected areas of
cooperation with the good prospects for progress in the short run, and which
may help generate “breakthroughs” in dealing with more difficult issues.
Governments and partners in the region should, first,
keep the “big picture” issues of regional cooperation and development in mind,
including the connection between them and the obstacles.
Second, governments and partners should identify and
agree on areas where there are good possibilities for short-term success (based
on mutually beneficial, less controversial projects) and which may serve as
entry points for further progress.
I would like to conclude with a point that today all
Central Asian countries are in need of greater cooperation in terms of regional
integration which will help them address common challenges: all of them are
land-locked; they follow divergent paths of economic development with a rapidly
growing gap between the income levels of energy exporting and non-energy
exporting states; and they all face the urgent task of modernizing and
diversifying their economies in order to move away from their present reliance
on energy for energy exporting
countries and commodity exports and integrate into the world economy. These
objectives can be best achieved by fully developing the potential of the region
as a transport hub between Europe and Asia and its growing contribution to the
energy security of China and the European Union.
After twenty years of independence it is time to
analyze some results of Central Asia’s regional cooperation. CA nations always
maintain close socio-economic relations, not least through the Silk Road.
Today all Central Asian countries are in the need of greater cooperation
in terms of regional integration which will help them address their common
diverse challenges: all of them are land-locked; they follow divergent paths of
economic development with a rapidly growing gap between the income levels of
energy exporting and non-energy exporting states; and they all face the urgent
task of modernizing and diversifying their economies in order to move away from
their present reliance on energy and commodity exports and integrate into the
world economy. These objectives can best be best achieved by fully developing
the potential of the region as a transport hub between Europe and Asia and its
growing contribution to the energy security of China and the European Union.
List of literature:
1. Лаумулин М. Три сценария развития
Афганистана — международные и региональные позиции // news.rambler.ru/10210465
2. Ибрагимов И. Экономическая политика и
структурные преобразования в Узбекистане // Центральная Азия и Кавказ (Лулеа,
Швеция). 2002. № 4. С. 199-208. Баум Л.
3. Динамика экономических
реформ в постсоветском Кыргызстане // Центральная Азия и Кавказ (Лулеа,
Швеция). 2007. № 2. С. 110-120.
4. Жаксыбаев М. Прямые
иностранные инвестиции в Центральной Азии // Центральная Азия и Кавказ (Лулеа,
Швеция). 2000. № 6. С. 169-176.
5. Салимов С. Нефтегазовые
ресурсы Каспия // Мировая экономика и международные отношения (Москва). 2007. №
10. С. 42-45. Морозова М.Ю. Природные ресурсы во внешней политике Центральной
Азии – интегрирующее звено или дестабилизирующий фактор? // Форум: Центральная
Азия в евразийской перспективе. Восток. 1996. № 5. С. 48–54