Kassenova D.I., Khaidargaliyeva T.T.

Karaganda state university named E.A.Buketov

Influence of world financial crisis on development of bank system of Republic Kazakhstan

The Financial crisis, which has begun more than year ago, was threw on real sector, consequences of it threaten to be more dangerous first of all for economics with high raw dependence. The national bank has published facts of the regular inspection “A condition and the forecast of parameters of the credit market”, lead in October. The situation on Kazakhstan credit market in the third quarter is characterized in the report by preservation of a backlog demand on credit resources from legal and physical persons. Preservation of rigid credit policy and conditions of crediting by banks on a background of an adverse economic conjuncture of the markets and negative expectations. Major factors which have affected toughening of credit policy of banks, also are connected mainly with a worsening external conjuncture. These are negative expectations of tendencies of economic development, uncertain prospects of development of the market of the real estate, falling of the general level of solvency of borrowers, and also the risks connected with cost and reassessment of mortgaging maintenance, growth of credit risks concerning the certain branches of economy, it is spoken in the report.

The corporate sector in the next report is characterized by absence of new “good” borrowers who to the full would correspond to the existing list of requirements, and disbalance between toughening of credit policy by banks and high values of demand for extra resources. It is emphasized, that branches of economy which did not concern banks in the category risky earlier, in a current situation cause their steadfast attention. First of all it concerns to trade and an agriculture, partly - to oil-and-gas and an iron and steel industry that emphasizes system character of display of crisis and its distribution in oriented to export branches. In retail sector the further reduction in demand for hypothecary crediting and the limited demand for consumer crediting in comparison with the last quarter is observed. First of all banks connect it with preservation of uncertainty in the market of the real estate and growth of debt burden on a background of decrease in incomes of the population. Banks mark, that the population experiences complexities with service of available loans in connection with problems in the majority of branches of economy, that directly affects growth of a level of delays and re-structuring of loans.

By results of interrogation banks mark, that the accent on maintenance of quality of a loan portfolio kept the importance in current quarter, and will remain a priority problem in the long-term period. According to opinion of banks, their primary activity is characterized by the cautious approach to crediting and an effective utilization of sources of attraction additional funding. Regarding funding banks give the greatest preference to deposits of physical and legal persons. At the same time it is marked, that in the financial market growth of cost of resources and decrease in the rests on accounts of legal persons is observed. Rating agency Standard Poor's this week has confirmed a rating of five large Kazakhstan banks. Earlier the appropriated credit ratings are confirmed BankТuranАlem, Kazkommertsbank, National bank, Alliance Bank and АТF bank. Simultaneously the forecast of change of ratings on АТА bank is reconsidered with “Stable” to “Negative”. The forecast on other banks is left without change in a “Negative” level. Rating actions have followed the recent announcement of measures of the state support which reduce pressure upon ratings of first four banks. As to “The Alliance” and other banks more significant influence of the state support of banks now is considered. Recently the government has defined “The Alliance” as backbone bank also has included it in the program of support. Some uncertainty remains concerning inclusion of other banks in this program (including АТА bank and Bank CentrKredit) which number of shareholders includes foreign investors, is spoken in the message in this occasion.

Taken in the end of October the government the measures directed on maintenance of stability of bank sector and a national economy, according to agency, satisfy to classification of Kazakhstan as “Interventional” the countries from the point of view of readiness of the government to support backbone to private banks. It is expected, that process of ocurrence of the state in the capital of banks will be prolonged some months, but means of support should act on deposits of banks already in the near future. At the same time the agency does not see attributes of improvement of a situation in bank sector and believes, that the decision of problems will represent long process. Though the Kazakhstan banks quickly and effectively adapted for considerably changed conditions in economy and bank sector, it is supposed, that long and going deep deterioration of a situation renders negative influence on their credit status. The operational environment now rating agency is characterized by deep crisis of liquidity and delay of economic growth in the country, and both of these the factor continue to influence levels of liquidity and quality of actives of banks negatively.