Khaidargaliyeva T.T., Kassenova D.I.

Karaganda state university named E.A.Buketov

Overvalue of risks of bank activity in the conditions of world financial crisis

Unfavorable conditions on international financial markets and tension with liquidity influence negatively on the level of trust, access to the credits and on the stream of foreign currency. These circumstances increase probability of default of separate corporate borrowers, worsen quality of brief-cases of consumer loans, that, entails the problems of non returns of the got credits.

Consequently, both from point of probability and from point of weight of consequences, most dangerous today there is a credit risk in the banking system of Kazakhstan.

Probability of the indicated risk presently substantially grew on the row of the followings factors:

1. «Crisis of trust». The mortgage crisis of the USA, generating a world financial crisis and bringing down world fund markets, attained Kazakhstan as an outflow of facilities of foreign investors. It worsened liquidity of banks, using foreign debt funds, anв resulted in lowering of quotations of Kazakhstan securities. An origin over of crisis of liquidity and his consequence was brought to transformation in the crisis of trust, that, in same queue, influences on ability of banks to give operations on crediting. The accepted by the Kazakhstan government of measure decided the problem of liquidity up to a point, but did not remove the crisis of trust.

2. «Principle of domino». The successful conduct of business implies dependence on the great number of suppliers and users. Financial instability of one of contractors, impossibility of timely receipt of credit can result in the stop of all production chain, that will promote the credit risk of all participants of process.

3. «Collapse of demand». A financial crisis in a country is already reflected in rolling up of production, reduction of pay-envelopes and profits, and it, in same queue, turns around falling of demand. Investigation of it is falling of profitability of business of clients, decline of ability to serve a loan debt before a bank, that a credit risk is increased. As a credit risk, makes the considerable part of general risks of banks, weight of consequences from this type of risk is maximal.

In the folded situations of instruments for acceptance of impartial estimation of the indicated risks obviously not enough. Frequency and terms of receipt of actual state information market fall short of to speed of development of financial crisis. Information, given by ratings agencies and public accountant conclusions, it is a reaction of post factum already, thus with a sufficient temporal interval.

The lack of information is compensated by the decline of general risks of bank activity with the proper decline of profitableness. Banks have to renounce long-term investments, highrisk investments and operations.

What lesson can we learn from this crisis? That is it necessary to undertake for an improvement positions in the bank sphere of Kazakhstan?

We think that, toughening of credit policy and growth of interest rates on credits is instrumental in forming of more careful credit policy of banks. From this point of view a financial crisis must render positive influence on forming of high-quality loan brief-cases.

In the conditions of existent crisis banks must bring in change in the method of estimation of risks, the additional criteria of estimation of clients are required. The special role is played by the index of the promissory loading.

The possible worsening of quality of credit brief-case and decline of cost of the mortgage providing require the increase of level of backlogs on coverage of possible losses.

At the estimation of the financial state of borrowers substantially the role of individual estimation rises against formalized, use of fresh (current) information, indexes of liquidity and turnover.

The permanent leadthrough of monitoring of the financial state of contractor is needed with the purpose of exposure of possible losses on the early stage, to the origin of problem debt. The special attention it is necessary to turn on separate industrial sectors which the parameters of acceptability of crediting must be toughened in.

The very effective instruments of estimation of credit risk are internal models, based on the study of credit histories of clients. The use of technology of verification and rule of verification is swindles, based on skoring ball will help to compensate the lack of information in regard to possibility of hit «bad» client. It is important to mark that permanent optimization of instruments of making decision can decrease this risk.

In some of problems connected with estimation of credit bank is necessary to notice limited developed of infrastructure of financial market, inadequacy of market prices on the row of assets in certain moments of time, and as a result, possibility of manipulation a market by their separate participants. Together with it, the culture of opening of financial and business-information clients absents, there is a culture of exposure and receipt of the credit ratings the subjects of economic activity in the initial stage of development. Present financial and nonofinancial information enables to do only certain suppositions about the degree of inherent to him risk. The conservative going near an estimation and transference of accents from formal quantitative estimations to the expert estimations require a competense and professionalism of analysts and risk-managers bank high level.

Panicky moods of depositors obligate to complete mobilization of liquidity, providing sufficient reserve on coverage of payments. It should be noted that the general background of distrust occurs everywhere from the moment of beginning of crisis.

Organized and purposeful measures on suppression of distribution of false information about insolvency of banks will eliminate possibility of origin of panic and anxiety among clients. Will heal part the crisis will do good for the market aught, will deliver it from weak and «unconscientious» players, will influence on internal second market of mortgage development, will result in the necessity of finding of ways of refunding for Kazakhstan.

As many economic difficulties there is close interdependence of build and bank sectors, in this question need realization of state measures with the purpose of completion of unfinished build projects. There brought suggestion about pointlessness of crediting in expedience of nonviable companies. Taking into account more active participation of the state in a financial sphere, it is rationally to offer the increase of volumes of financing of the real sector of economy, for example agroindustrial sector.

Basic priority of development is a direction of investment growth, reflecting new possibilities of private sector, which leans against the domestic private saving. It means that it is necessary to expend state facilities slowly and to slow the rates of growth of consumption until there is no increase of the labour productivity.

If to talk about outlook on the nearest prospect, then in the banking system of Kazakhstan a situation, as it appears us, will not change on principle. Liquidity of banks will remain a very deficit and dear. At the same time, coming the Kazakhstan banks to pay the enough serious volume of the external borrowings, that will strengthen talks about the possible necessity of their restructuring.

Main direction of development of financial institutes in the nearest years: it to do support on development of money circulation through the system of money substitutes. Many banks will become the centers of clearing calculations, clearinghouses will be created, bill of exchange centers et cetera.

Support of the banking system from the side of the Kazakhstan government can gradually bring back to life a bank market. Nevertheless, there is a risk of development of situation and in other direction. Consolidation of the real sector can result in growth of the state participating in an economy, and the substantial volume of state inflowings will accelerate inflation and will not allow to form private economies. Under this circumstances in the course of time weakening of national currency will become inevitable under constraint capital outflows.

Instruments for the estimation of risks today sufficiently. However the row of risks of the world financial markets related to the state it is practically impossible to forecast, regardless of volume of present information. Therefore by the bullet moment of financial safety, on this period of time, there is diversification of brief-cases and instruments, allowing to minimize the losses of commercial banks at any development of events.