S.Sarbufina

Institute of Economics, Academy of Sciences RK

Kazakh-British Technical University

Priorities in formation of a supply and demand

in the market of mineral oil.

Now in methodology of development of the commodity markets actual meaning get problems of definition of priorities in formation of the offer in the market of oil and mineral oil. There are some methodical receptions of definition of prospects of development of the market of hydrocarbons. In particular, allocation of the factors defining a market demand is made: Condition of the world market of oil; a condition of economy of the countries of consumers; volume of current and predicted consumption by them of mineral oil; a level of production of mineral oil with use of import of hydrocarbons; structure of marks and quality of consumed oil; the developed infrastructure of delivery of hydrocarbons. Thus it is necessary to consider probability of increase of demand from the states of Asian-Pacific region. For Kazakhstan strengthening interrelations with the CIS countries and closer interaction with the European market of consumers of hydrocarbons also is important.

Other group of factors forms the market offer of hydrocarbons among which it is necessary to allocate:

· level of the reconnoitered both approved stocks of oil and oil-extracting capacities;

· level of processing of hydrocarbons and oil refining capacities inside of the country-manufacturer;

· development of a transport network and types of transport on delivery of oil and mineral oil;

· ecological conditions of extraction and processing of hydrocarbons

The oil potential of Kazakhstan is expressed by following figures: the reconnoitered stocks of oil and a gas condensate make nearby 3 billion t., forecasting- 13 billion т. In 2005 it is extracted from above 47 mln. t oil that looks modestly enough in comparison with world parameters. Achievement of resource opportunities to 2015 at a level 120- 140 mln. tones is expected. Till this moment in republic practice of deep and complex processing of hydro carbonic raw material is insufficiently developed. Consumption of oil will grow in the developed countries rather low rates what is connected with development of their economy (a gain of gross national product 2-3% in a year).

Transition on energy saving type of economic growth with a new coil of scientifically technical innovations and also the increased ecological requirements can lower demand for energy carriers in developing countries and to stop on forecasting rates of consumption in 0,6–0,8%, that to grow more slowly a total internal product. Rather high rates of cumulative demand for energy carriers will be peculiar to developing countries in which there is an active structural reorganization and advancing growth of base power-consuming industries development of transport and increase specific energy consumption per capita. The offer in the market of oil develops according to growth of an oil recovery and reserve stocks. According to the International power agency (IPA), the offer exceeds demand owing to presence of sufficient stocks and reserve capacities on extraction of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Nigeria, Kuwait, etc.

Comparison of volume of extraction of hydro carbonic raw material in Kazakhstan with world leaders is of interest manufacturers of oil. On an oil recovery per capita the republic advances Russia and has come nearer to Iran. Prevalence in structure of industrial production of an oil recovery and a gas condensate is considered negative display of dependence of national economy from the world prices for oil. In conditions of globalization of economic system it forms in an unilateral approach, not capable to consider real economic advantages of development which other states do not possess.

The raw component of economy can be characterized through system of parameters connected with development of the oil market. Firstly, it is a share of extraction and manufacture of hydro carbonic raw material in volume of extraction (fuel) mineral resources of republic. Secondly, it is a share of production of the oil-and-gas industry in volume of production of mining branches. Thirdly, it is relative density of pure export of oil and mineral oil in volume of the similar goods of the world market. At last fourthly, it is a share of the reconnoitered and industrial stocks of hydro carbonic raw material in volume of world reserves. According to the accepted methodology, the algorithm of raw making economy on hydro carbonic raw material can be defined by aggregation of an export component (Ro/Rm) and a parameter of internal specialization (Pl/ Pk) manufactures of oil of a gas condensate and mineral oil under the formula:

where:

Ro - volume of oil and the mineral oil exported by Kazakhstan;

RM- capacity of the world market of oil and mineral oil;

Рl- volume of oil and mineral oil made by Kazakhstan, behind a minus of internal consumption;

Рк- volume of forecasting extractions of hydro carbonic raw material.

In a world practice accumulation of the national capital is impossible without use of raw potential. The raw component of the Kazakhstan economy is diverse enough and has multi-component character including coal and ore iron, ores copper, aluminum, chromic limestone raw material, phosphate and other production of the mining industry. Thus, characterizes a raw component in economy of republic one parameter it is not obviously possible.

The active development of the commodity sector has become the economic spring, the necessary impetus that brought the economy to the path of stability and economic growth:

through export operations with positive commodity resources provided the balance of payments; 

has been the accumulation of domestic capital, which along with the direct investment allowed to begin structural reform of industries and sectors of the economy, recovery and development of domestic manufacturing; 

ensured the development of the domestic currency market, money market and capital market, domestic market means borrowing instruments fiscal and monetary policies;

eliminated chronic budget deficit;

started addressing social issues, prepared the transition to a socially oriented economy. 

The raw materials component of economy of Kazakhstan on oil on the world market still relatively small and is 0.8%.Meanwhile republics faces from 90 countries world community is in the first twenty countries - the petroleum exporting countries. Regarding the share of production of oil and gas condensate in the republic, its value was significantly higher and in value terms, taking into account the price factor, the percentage of oil and gas condensate 29.1% in 2002. .In conditions of active integration of economy of Kazakhstan in world economic space the oil market of republic tests strong influence of market mechanisms of a cumulative supply and demand of the price factor of tariff policy of development of a network of transportation and a degree of use of resources of hydro carbonic raw material. Synchronization of interests of the state and petro-business is necessary for the decision of the put problems in suboil uses, creation of the national concept suboil using and development of the republican oil market. Creation in the long term a complex oil and gas extraction, oil & gas processing and petrochemical manufactures will allow to lower dependence: economy of Kazakhstan from a conjuncture of the world market of oil, will be raised with the contribution of raw economy making in development and increase of well-being of the population.