Political science/10.Regional
political processes
Kuzutbaeva B.K, candidate of historical
sciences
Caspian
State University of Technology and Engineering named
after Sh. Yesenov, Kazakhstan
THE OIL FACTOR IN THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL POLICY
Global processes of contemporary world
development, directly or indirectly related to energy issues. Energy
consumption is growing rapidly, and until 2020 it is forecast by the
International Energy Agent , is still at 80% will be provided by fossil fuels - oil, natural gas and coal [1].
Stable supply by energy resources, reliable access to their
sources - these problems are priority for almost all states. Energy problems have long gone beyond the
domestic framework in both the economic and political spheres. Today many regional conflicts and crises are connected with the oil theme.
Under the influence of globalization processes, the importance of the energy
factor in world affairs will increase.
In the structure of energy consumption oil takes leading place and it is the basis of fuel and
energy balances of all economically developed countries, which account for more
than 4 / 5 of world consumption of petroleum products in the possession of only
10% of proven oil reserves.
Because of this, the problems of energy security are
central priorities of national development strategies in most countries. Relationships of
world energy markets are characterized by two distinct dimensions - economic
and political. Stable, no-risk energy supplies - one of the most important
prerequisite for sustainable development. On the other hand, it affects the
country's priorities in foreign policy and security.
According to International Energy Agency, in 2010 the major countries
of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), imported oil for a total of $ 790 billion
dollars - to $ 195 billion more than in 2009. EU rises in prices at a cost of $ 70
billion, U.S. - $ 72 billion, and Japan - at $ 27 billion
[2]
The crisis in 2008 was not triggered by oil
prices. The crisis was generated by internal causes,
and to overcome it the governments of the leading countries in the last
two years spent in the 7-10 times more money than to pay for rising in price of
oil. The rising of oil prices will stimulate
technological innovation. Do not forget about the positive effect of high oil
prices on developing alternative energy sources, they have led to the development of
production "heavy" oil and shale gas, as well as wind, solar and
nuclear energy. Rising oil prices to $ 120 and even $ 160 / bar. not kill the
Western economies, but rather to make them more efficient and creative, says
expert Vladimir Inozemtsev.
Much of the increase in oil demand today is
provided by China and newly industrialized countries of Asia, the share of
China and India in additional demand for oil in the years 2008-2035 is
estimated by experts at the IEA 54% of the total increase in demand in the
world. Meanwhile, growth in these countries (in 2010 they were in Malaysia -
6.8% in India - 8.8, China - 10.2, Vietnam 11.2, Singapore - 14,8% ) indicates:
high oil prices is
not an obstacle to strong economic development.
The main supplier of oil to the world market has
been and remains the Middle East. In this region at the beginning of this
century, there were 63.3% of the world's proven oil reserves. Most major
oil-producing countries in the region are members of OPEC, which determines the
main role of this
organization in
the world. Another group of suppliers of oil to world markets is represented by independent
exporters, the largest of which are Russia, Mexico, Norway
and the UK.
The world's largest oil consumer is the United States, which consume for about one-fourth of
total world consumption of liquid fuels, which amounts to about one billion
tons of oil a year. This causes a huge impact of the USA on the world energy market and in the energy
sphere of international relations.
The next group of countries with
recent rapid economic growth and
expanding their influence in the energy sector, are the APR countries, among which a
special position is occupied by China and India. Energy component is a key
element of successful development of these countries. In the future, any
violations in the supply of oil to China and India, as well as the responses
that these countries will take to remedy the situation will largely determine
the economic and political situation in both the regional and the global arena.
Russia has very important role in the global oil market,
ranking second place among the leading exporters in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia.
There are only a few regions, where
possible increase in exports: a West Africa and Central Asia.
World experience shows that economic growth in countries
rich in oil, gas and other natural resources to be lower than in countries, where supplies of such
resources are limited or these resources are non-existent. In Holland, for
example, growth in exports of natural gas stifled industrial exports of the
country, resulting in an decrease in industry, began de-industrialization.
Economists this paradoxical phenomenon called "Dutch disease" [3].
The dominance of the mining sector over other
sectors of the economy could lead to an increase in social inequality, to
threaten the country's educational level, lower the overall growth of industry
and exacerbate the imbalance in the economy.
Today, some regions of the world are good alternative to
Middle East, one of them is the Caspian oil and gas area. It is expected, that the Caspian region would provide about 3%
of world oil consumption. Zone of the Caspian Sea and the Caspian area today
attract the attention of many countries, not only for its rich hydrocarbon
resources, but also the peculiarities of the geopolitical and geostrategic position, that determines the
economic, political and military-strategic interests of major actors in world
politics. The Caspian region has actually become a field of multivector rivalry and antagonism
between the states and the forces that wish to dominate in this strategically important region of the world.
This region was and is a major hub of international trade and economic
relations, its territory is crossed by trade routes of the East - West and
North - South.
The appearance after the Soviet collapse in 1991
more than a dozen new actors in international relations, their links with the
international community forced to re-evaluate a number of regional problems.
The Caspian region since the 1990's., is in the process of integration into the global system of
power relations as a major supplier of oil and natural gas and has its own features.
The problem of the legal status of the Caspian Sea is the
focus of attention of international and domestic legal community and is the
subject of intense debate both in political and academic circles. Legal vacuum
in the field of subsoil in the Caspian
Sea creates a number of serious political and economic problems. Disputes among
the littoral states on a number of oil and gas fields generate tension. Under
these conditions, the neighboring Caspian states decide the issue on a
bilateral basis, agreeing on delimitation of the contiguous parts of the
Caspian seabed to subsoil. Such agreements are known as: between Russia and
Kazakhstan (1998) with the Protocol signed on May 13, 2002, between Kazakhstan
and Azerbaijan (2001), the between Azerbaijan and Russia (September 23, 2002).
In the new political and economic conditions are the Arab OPEC countries,
where the oil sector in the hands of state companies. In the 70 years, spending
a massive nationalization, they closed their markets to Western oil companies,
and now gradually open them. So, Libya in 2004 opened its oil sector for investment
by foreign companies. Share ( usually 25-30%) in joint companies Western companies can buy in
several countries in the Persian Gulf. Even Saudi Arabia has opened in 2003 for
foreigners its gas fields, so the state Saudi Aramco company was able to concentrate on oil. By 2020, the Middle East in world
oil production could increase to 45-50%.
The greatest openness to foreign investment
demonstrate Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and oil is growing very quickly there. In these countries, are
already present Chevron Texaco, BP, Agip and other Western companies that have
virtually ensured the needs of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in investments.
Oil and gas sector as one of the leading
industries of the production is the basis for economic development and largely
determines the economic independence of the country [4].
At the present time there are no isolated European and Asian security. The important interstate mechanisms to ensure stability,
created in an era of bipolar world or on its ruins, now forced to act in a
fundamentally different coordinates system. Under the pressure of the new balance of
forces in the world the old system of maintaining peace and security is eroding. threats. The sources of these threats are closely
intertwined. Consequently, the keynote of forming long –term security can and should be the complementary efforts of various
regional organizations and international structures.
With the search for an effective response to
traditional and new challenges to international stability and security in the
new century, repeatedly raised the importance of ensuring global energy
balance. Energy resources are of critical importance to improving the quality
of life and expanding opportunities for all nations. Kazakhstan is interested
in energy security, realization of the Eurasian energy transportation projects.
Energy component is becoming more powerful
argument in the global geopolitical balance. In recent years, one can observe a
shift in emphasis in the interpretation of the concept of the energyeskoy safety
net. If previously under the energy security was understood exclusively
equipped stable of major energy
consumers, but now it includes extraction, transportation, statements and sales
on energy markets. In other words, all the representatives of the entire energy chain must bear
its share of responsibility.
REFERENCES
1. Utkin A.I. Globalization: The process and
reasoning. - M., 2001. - P. 14.
2. Inozemtsev V. Test by oil. Izvestia, January
21, 2011
3. Koksharov A. Strategic
ellipse. "Expert,
2005, ¹ 28
4. Oil and gas resources of
Kazakhstan in the global and regional
relations. Almaty: KISI, 2002. - P.4