Политология/ 7. Глобалистика

С.s.s. Kuzmenko T.V.

Mordovian state university by N.P .Ogarev, Russia

Demographic Processes in Russia: Condition and Prospects*

The urgency of the research is caused by negative tendencies in the modern Russian reality – decrease of birth rate, depopulation. The problems touched upon in the paper are of great interest and it is necessary to study them from the point of view of modern global processes. During realization of research on the given theme the method of peer review was used. A survey among the scientists engaged in research of family and demography problems and the experts working in social sphere was carried out in 2008. The questionnaire was used as an implement of research.

In the paper the opinion of experts on features in development of modern family-demographic processes in Russia, their interrelation with globalization is revealed. In particular experts assume insignificant growth of birth rate. There was a wide discussion of measures of financial support of motherhood and childhood capable to improve a situation with birth rate. As a consequence experts assume the insignificant positive tendency in a natural increase. Concerning other demographic factors respondents hold the opinion that negative tendencies in demographic processes will stay almost without changes: death rate and divorces will grow, marriages will be reduced.

Birth rate decrease and population reduction have inevitable consequences on a situation in the country. In political sphere experts assume change in the ratio of political forces. Partly it can be explained by the fact that old population will have an effect on political preferences of electorate which will not result in change of a political mode in any case. In economic sphere in opinion of interrogated experts the ratio of labour resources with reduction of their share in manufacture and agriculture, and increase in human services will be changed. With some sort of confidence experts indicated the occurrence of new technologies, improvement of tax collection and in this connection increase of investments in the Russian economy. In opinion of experts the given factors as well as changes in demographic processes will prevent the deficiency of the budget. In social area experts predict both positive and negative changes. The level of social protection will not be improved. Although the quality of education and public health services are not worsened, these services will not become widely available. Interrogated experts also note the improvement of habitation security. Their opinions differ on a level of income of the population: increase of income and its decrease are possible. In ecological sphere the most negative changes and consequences both for ecology of an environment and the person are assumed. Most of the experts specify the occurrence of new factors and technologies polluting environment. However experts consider that new power-saving technologies are most likely to appear. In the sphere of ethnic relations respondents assume essential changes. Disproportions in structure of the population between various national groups will be shown. There will be a mixture between them that will cause contention amplification in interethnic relations. The majority of experts do not see here the bases for tension reduction. In cultural sphere most experts specify the occurrence of new values and reference points in self-realization of a person; the values of individualism and western way of life are widespread nowadays. However a half of respondents consider that distribution of east traditions will not take place.

The decision of internal questions at the expense of external demographic resources can be achieved only partly. More than a half of experts (58 %) can share this opinion. On the contrary more than a quarter of interrogated people specify that it is impossible to compensate a demographic problem in Russia by inflow of migrants, and it is necessary to use internal resources more effectively. 35 % of experts think that external inflow will promote contention amplification. Only 5 % of respondents consider that there will be an adequate full integration of migrants into local community.

Experts determined the list of the measures capable to change the tendency in birth rate for the better. The economic factor was supported by a third of experts’ voices. The second choice is social and cultural changes. Experts specify the necessity of propagation of family values to increase the birth rate, while governors and inhabitants concentrate their attention only on economic problems and necessity of financial support of family. Thus almost anybody from them does not stress the propagation of a family way of life. They either consider it to be rather difficult (though introduction of economic measures is not less difficult) and unimportant (insignificant), or do not guess the importance and influence of this measure. Nevertheless the application of these measures should be carried out in a complex, because positive changes in demographic processes are possible only in this case.

Concerning the global interdependence influence of the countries of the world on a family-demographic situation in Russia 60, 1 % of experts assume it to be insignificant. Still a quarter of respondents support a large extent of influence. There are hardly more than 8 % of experts that approve that this process will not affect a situation in Russia. In our opinion, this influence is much stronger than it is appreciated; probably this connection is realized not entirely. The experts state that demographic processes in Russia will affect global problems; however this influence will be slight.

In Russia it is necessary to have competent immigration and economic policy, the balanced approach to a political and cultural role of Russia in the world. It will allow it to become the country which does not require radical increasing of a population for the steady development.

*The article was written within the framework of RF President grant realization MK-656.2006.6 “Globalization and family-demographic behavior of RF population”.