METHODICAL APPROACHES TO FORECASTING
NEED{REQUIREMENT} FOR THE STAFF IN SYSTEM OF PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES OF REPUBLIC
KAZAKHSTAN
G.Z.Tokmurzieva
Almaty
state institute of doctors’s retraining
Republic
Kazakhstan, Almaty
Personnel
selection in sphere of public health services is directly connected to the
general principles of the organization of the public health services, accepted
in the given society. The history of their development leaves in depth, and
principles existing on today accumulate in themselves all historical
experience.
The
situation in a policy, in sphere of public health services of
Kazakhstan is determined first of all by the state independence of the country
and reflected basically a joint liability of the state and the citizen for the
public and individual health, formulated in the State program of reforming and
development of public health services of Republic Kazakhstan on 2005-2010ãã. In these conditions the role of personnel’ planning
in public health services, and the decision of the problems arising in the
given direction of public health services raises, demands the account of
historical experience of the Kazakhstan and other countries of the world.
Alongside
with above-stated the problem of personnel selection falls outside the limits
the competence only system of public health services and is directly
coordinated to the current problems of social and economic development of the
state.
In Kazakhstan in 1997
scientific research under the analysis and the forecast of personnel selection
of public health services of Republic Kazakhstan on urgent-, average-and long-term
prospects has been carried out. Calculation of the forecast of development and
creation of models of possible development of manpower resources of public
health services was carried out on the basis of the program of the World Heakth
Organization "Human Resources for projecting workforce supply and
requirements" (Thomas L. Hall, WHO, 1994). In the given program methods of
forecasting - a method of extrapolation in which basis the assumption of
preservation in the future of previous tendencies lays have been applied, and
its logic basis was the assumption of an invariance of influencing factors and
a method of mathematical modelling.
In 2004-2005 within the framework of a theme of research work «The scientific
substantiation and development of methodical
approaches to management of personnel resources of public health services and a medical science, studying and an estimation of the
statistical account of the personnel information in system of public health services
in Kazakhstan» on the basis of the Centre of science, medical and economic
problems of public health services were developed approaches to forecasting the
medical staff. In research the following methods were applied: statistical, mathematical, the structural analysis, the basic a component, Monte
Carlo. All these
methods allow to construct rather exact forecast
of personnel potential of public health services of republic.
The
offered technique of forecasting till now is one of last methodical tools of
planning of personnel selection in system of public health services of
Kazakhstan. By development of methodological bases of forecasting it was taken
into account not only a policy of development of public health services of
Kazakhstan, but also global experience.
The conceptual characteristic of a technique of definition of long-term
need of branch of public health services in the staff is based on the following
positions:
1. Forecasting the staff is considered as the dynamic process
determined: a) by
natural changes of the population of the country and b) by
normative regulation of activity of system of public health services.
2. The essence and the purpose of forecasting is reduced to optimization
of personnel structure and distribution of the staff of public health services
with their reduction conformity with real needs of maintenance of health of
Kazakhstan’s population with way of formation of system of corresponding
normative conditions of a professional training.
3. On the basis of the offered technique personnel selection should
reflect results of prospective interventions (during the current reforms) in a
personnel situation by expert selection of adequate specifications (regular
specifications of maintenance with experts of the treatment-and-prophylactic
organizations).
Thus, normative regulation of personnel structure and natural dynamics
of the population make the basic characteristics ïðîãíîçíîãî a background.
According to the above-stated and carried out analysis the offered
technique of forecasting of the staff in public health services has the
following features.
1. It reflects current dynamics of Kazakhstan’s population in a section
of city and village during the predicted period; thus it is supposed, that
parameters demographic a situation during prognosis period, remain constant
(first of all - factor of natural change of a population). If these parameters
have changed in due course the opportunity introduction of new factors is
provided.
2. The technique reflects current dynamics of personnel structure of
public health services ÐÊ during
the predicted period in the assumption, that the real-life normative situation
during prognosis period will not change. That is the tendency of dynamics of
the staff will be determined by a constant normative background (an existing
situation concerning regular specifications of maintenance of the
treatment-and-prophylactic organizations by experts).
3.
During reforms any norms on the staff public health services, certainly, will
change. For these cases the technique provides introduction of new specifications
on the staff. It allows the user of a technique to vary personnel structure of
system of public health services. And the aggregate number of the staff can be
set as constant, and the structure on specialities can vary. Thus, the
technique reflects possible changes by way of preparation and trainings for a
new profession of personnel structure of public health services ÐÊ in ïðîãíîçíûé the period. That is it allows to
take into account the current tendency in dynamics of specifications of personnel
security of public health services pawned by plans and the current corrections
of process of reforms of public health services.
4. The
technique gives out result of forecasting as the tendency of change of number
and structure of the staff during the predicted period.
The technique carries out the forecast in a section of city and village,
experts of the medical and average medical personnel (nurses) on the basic
structures with account of preparation of the new staff in High
Schools/Universities and Colleges to republic parities of the natural gain of
the staff and their age structure in system of public health services.
The technique allows to unit specifications of
requirement for the staff in system of public health services with current
dynamics of the population of the country in system of straight lines and
feedback within the framework of uniform procedure of forecasting. Thus process
of acceptance of normative decisions on the staff of public health services can
preliminary be beaten by this technique experts on reforming public health
services. In essence planning of the staff is facilitated by an opportunity of
modelling of various normative situations in the future. These situations can
dynamically be modelled in view of a target situation on the staff of public
health services in Kazakhstan, expressed as system of the specifications
stipulated by a technique.
On the basis of the developed
technique of forecasting of long-term need for the staff we design model of
possible development of personnel resources at preservation of existing
processes. The designed model has shown, that at developed levels of a natural
increase of the population, preparation of the medical staff, their movements
sharply there is a necessity of strengthening of personnel selection of system
of public health services of Kazakhstan. The basic directions of perfection of
personnel selection should become reduction disbalance in
distribution of the medical staff, strengthenings of quality of preparation of
experts. At the same time the offered technique allows to model a situation
depending on change of separate parameters and to determine the optimum circuit
of development of the staff.