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Экономические науки/13.Региональная экономика

Ph.D. Shurda K.E.

Ukrainian Scientific Center of Sea Ecology (Odessa), Ukraine

Economic usefulness of weather-climatic information

In recent years, developed methods of use the regime and prognostic weather-climatic information and assess its cost effectiveness. The process of developing an economic meteorology confirms the urgent need to generalize the results of operational, development of common concepts weather-climatic information in the economy and identify ways of developing the theory and practice of weather support. Research in this area is sparse and in many respects far from complete. Modern training meteorologists now require them to thorough enough understanding of the economic aspects meteorological science.

Modern development of forecasting science required to develop cost-effective ways to apply the results of weather-climatic forecasts. At this stage of society there is no sector of the economy, which has not experienced a need for weather forecasts or other weather-climatic information. Weather forecasts have become an everyday operational material in the production activity, an important factor of economic development [1]. The development of industries, design and construction of cities, transportation, communication and power lines, seaports, airports and resorts require a wide and targeted registration climatic conditions and weather-climatic resources. With the success of socio-economic development regions, improving the structure of all industries and at the same time, growing demands for service forecasts are developed ways of sustainable use prognostic information in the economy and economic methods for evaluating the effect of weather forecasts.

For successful implementation of the practical application weather-climatic information is not enough to bring it to the consumer. Need to know the specifics and the main characteristics of production, according to which the weather-climatic information is supplied to a certain extent, with the required accuracy, form of presentation, and frequency of transmission. In this way, two-way exchange of weather-climatic and economic information between the consumer and specialist-meteorologist. This leads to a rapid decision is economically more profitable operations for the expected weather conditions and climatic parameters are already known. Implementation of scientific methods to use of weather-climatic information can significantly reduce the loss of economy due to weather conditions, to obtain the best effect for a given cost, or given effect at minimal cost [2].

At present there are real opportunities for advance warning of the occurrence of dangerous and extremely dangerous weather phenomena and to prevent or reduce their negative impact. Losses due to disaster weather-climatic phenomena have a special character. The source of these losses is constant, since the atmospheric processes are continuous in its development. If the production is available to exclude some of the causes economic loss, then stop, and even change the course of atmospheric processes (especially large scale) is still impossible. Should be considered, these processes include their adverse impact, to take measures of protection and thereby partially or completely to save material assets and successfully implement social activities. Among the main tasks it should be noted improvement opportunities quickly and effectively weaken the probable consequences of natural disasters through early warning systems and alert. The activity of such systems is largely dependent on appropriate automated subsystems, organized receipt, processing and dissemination of information. Due to the fact that the greatest damage to the economy is applied to abnormal processes and phenomena associated with the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere, increasing the accuracy of forecasting dangerous and extremely dangerous weather phenomena should be regarded as one of the most important directions to reduce damage from adverse weather conditions and related other natural disasters.

Spontaneous weather-climatic phenomena are atmospheric phenomena that are anomalous character [3, 4]. They are connected with the peculiarities of the circulation processes, which in some cases, influence and orographic factors. For Ukraine, which occupies the territory of the complex physical and geographical conditions, particularly its location is responsible frequency of significant dangerous and extremely hazardous (disaster) weather-climatic phenomena [5, 6].

Undoubtedly, a natural weather-climatic phenomenon is impossible to prevent. The energy of even a medium-scale cyclone, more than all the energy resources of the production several areas. However, the element can be predicted, and using in their practice predictions of natural phenomena, and taking the necessary measures can substantially reduce the economic losses to keep the property and production.

Spontaneous phenomena are characterized by significant variability in time and space and are distinguished by extreme complexity and diversity, which leads to great difficulties in their study. For many natural weather-climatic phenomena have very limited information. This is due to low reproducibility and difficulties in registering them as part of the phenomenon does not get into the field of view observations because of the large discrete and transience.

Therefore, generalization of the disaster weather-climatic phenomena is not advisable to carry out on separate points (items) and for certain areas. There is a widespread averaging of climatic data for selected squares, with particular importance is the selection of the size the area in which it is produced. There are many ways of area averaging which are applied to resolve certain types of tasks. Averaging can be made on economic, administrative regions, physical geography, climate, latitude zones, degree grid squares, etc. Allocation areas should be based on a criterion that does not depend on time. Such an objective, the constant sign is the physical and geographical features of the territory. Other climate forming factors are unstable in time and degree of their manifestation in a large extent depends on the underlying surface.

All consumers of weather and climate information, using the weather forecasts should take the necessary protective measures in order to reduce the damage from the expected meteorological conditions. In interaction with the consumer external environment is always a basic weather in the form of actual weather at the time (period), making those economic decisions. If we assume that the consumer does not receive forecasts, then, being dependent on external conditions, he can always focus on the current weather and always resort to its possible extrapolation. Today's forecast methodology the weather intended be greater economic usefulness, and not those who can make himself a consumer - the inertial forecasts. Economic decision-making use of "methodical" weather forecasts and warnings about the hazards, as such is not accompanied by immediate profit, and reduces the average losses, reduce them by comparison with the average loss when the consumer was forced to use the inertial forecasts, incidental, or climatological, i.e. those that do not require any methodological developments.

This is one of the most important conditions to enable correct assessment of the economic usefulness weather-climatic forecasts. Prognostic information in monetary terms is not priceless. To receive it spent huge amounts of money. Of course to assume that these expenses should not be wasted in the process of meteorological services should pay off. If due to operative forecasts obtained by reduction of average losses, the forecasts will be a positive effect only if the value of this reduction for the selected period of time greater than the cost of forecasts. Thus, the economic effect of the use forecasts is the saving of material assets minus expenses to get them [2].

Effective use of weather-climatic forecasts is possible if they have a sufficiently high accuracy. Accuracy of forecasts reflects the degree of adequacy the actual statements the conditions of the weather. The usefulness of weather-climatic information is determined not only by its quality, but also the consumer the ability to most effectively use it. Not every solution to the consumer on the basis of prognostic information will have a favorable outcome. However, he will seek to minimize not only the number of failed solutions, but their adverse economic consequences. Therefore, the consumer, together with specialist-meteorologist on the basis of meteorological and economic information to develop an optimal strategy, i.e. this principle of production decisions, for which he receives the maximum economic effect from the use of meteorological data. At the same time ensuring the safety performance of a number production operations and activities remains a major task of forecasting and can not be put in comparison with any economic benefits.

In analyzing the economic value of weather-climatic information, one should bear in mind the existence of two types estimates - empirical and theoretical. The first group is the so-called factual usefulness, or factual economic efficiency, which characterizes the real benefits obtained from the use of certain consumer climatic data in concrete conditions. The second group of estimates is the potential usefulness or potential economic efficiency, which characterizes the estimated average benefits, which could in principle be obtained by making optimal use of consumer relevant weather-climatic information.

The bases for calculating the factual economic efficiency are the specific data that are taken directly from existing economic reporting of customers weather-climatic information. Featuring a relatively simple, such estimates, however, have some methodological limitations. This is, first, determining factual economic efficiency of relatively small number cases really observed. When not considered, or considered incomplete that a wide range of situations that may to form due to natural variability affecting weather-climatic factors and a variety of possible economic solutions. The second factor that severely limits the possibility of applying factual economic efficiency indicators to assess the economic utility of weather-climatic information, is that the resulting effect of decisions depends not only on the quality of meteorological materials, such as reliability and lead time of forecasts, but also on how this information is taken into account in the process of economic planning. In contrast to the factual economic efficiency the potential effectiveness of weather-climatic information is not determined by direct calculation of cases observed sporadically, and indirectly, on the basis of theoretical analysis specially constructed for this purpose, a mathematical model. This gives an indication of economic performance in the consumer's options for consideration of weather-climatic information.

We denote E₁ - calculated by the model, the potential effect that could be provided in the absence of the weather-climatic information, and E₂ - an effect which can in principle be achieved by making optimal use of it, the potential value of the consideration weather-climatic information for the consumer will be characterized by absolute economies:

DE = E- E ( E³ E ) (1)

and in relative units - a dimensionless indicator of:

l = (2)

From the definition of the potential economic efficiency of weather-climatic information, it follows that its estimation is inseparably linked with the search for the optimal economic strategies implementation laid down in the use of weather-climatic information potential.

Conclusions. Management - is the impact on the object selected on the basis of available information from a variety of impacts, improving the functioning and development of this object in accordance with a pre-by the intended purpose [7]. For realization of necessary management control object, the control unit and the connection between them, and they form a system of governance. Mathematical model of the system is called the description in any formal language that allows you to judge the behavior of this system using formal procedures. For management purposes model may be used, which is fairly well reflects the properties of a real object (the system), significant in terms of management. However, the construction of theoretical models that quantitatively describe the complex atmospheric processes that leading to the appearance of disaster weather-climatic phenomena, is one of the most complicated problems of modern science. Extremely important is the establishment of relevant management theory, which allows to find optimal economic decisions for long-term business planning and operational implementation of production activities.

A detailed exposition of the theory of optimization business decisions made based on various types of weather-climatic information, given in a specially dedicated to this issue monographs [8, 9]. Today, however, revealed an extreme insufficiency these studies. The analysis of optimization theory economic decisions has shown that in their selection should be considered:

- The natural variability of the influence weather-climatic factors;
- Factual accuracy used of weather-climatic forecasts;
- Economic consequences of non-compliance factual weather conditions, which are based on the planned economic activities.

Thus, this article is devoted to modern issues and problems of economic usefulness of prognostic information. Particular attention is paid disaster weather-climatic phenomena, as for obvious reasons, the effective suppression of dangerous weather-climatic phenomena has a special place. Given that the protective measures taken by the appropriate warnings and that, like any other prognostic information is a warning may be justified or not justified, must be rationally planned action against dangerous weather-climatic phenomena.

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