Athletes of different ranks use attainment of sport science and medicine
in all kinds of modern professional sports for successful performance. In order
to perform the sportsmen on the peak form to the definite competitions
scientifically proved methods are existed.
Unfortunately, in our days these methods are seldom used by professional
sportsmen, that is why in team kinds of sports the coach has to make choice for
request to definite match of two and more players pretending for the same
position in the body of team and
approximately equal by class of game and the level of preparation to it. In these cases the coach often relies on his
own intuition based on his qualification and experience.
The difficulty of usage of these
methods come down to the fact that it’s necessary to make a calculation during
a long period of time which as a rule come down to computations from the course
of higher mathematics or mathematical statistics, but it essentially complicate
the process of forecasting.
For automation the process of forecasting effectiveness of sportsmen
demonstration in competitions were used the methods which were developed by
doctor of technical science A.A. Taranzev and the candidate of technical
science V.G. Chernov.
Forecasting of effectiveness sportsmen demonstration in coming match is
accounted by mathematical model (MM), connecting exponents of effectiveness and
biorhythms (physical, emotional, intellectual) of players, taking into account
factor of “self”, “alien” and “neutral” field. These exponents are chosen by
authors as affecting factors because they have more powerful impact on the
sportsmen performance effectiveness to the event. Sportsmen’s MM are obtained
in consequence of the previous performance results elaboration. Grade is
accepted for the effectiveness performance exponent of each sportsmen given by
coach for the definite carried out match. Physical, emotional, intellectual
cycles are the biorhythm exponents of each sportsman.
The developed method essence is that each sportsman comes out as a
complicated system which is influenced by four factors: biorhythm exponents
(x1, x2, x3) and field (x4). Output
parameter system is the grade (y) for carried out match.
According
to N> 4 test performance of sportsman matrix X and Y form which contains the
data about factors and grade of sportsman. Matrix X includes N line and m = 4
columns, matrix Y- N lines. Then according to matrix X and Y models in the form of parameter dependences from factor are built:
Y=f (x1, x2,… xm , À), (1)
Where
A- model coefficient vector, obtained from minimum amount square deviation of
calculating and experimental meaning of sportsman’s grade
This
condition can be written in the following manner:
(2)
where D – is dispersion of grade
calculation
M- is the number coefficient model (1) (vector size A)
yi 3 - -parameter
meaning, defined by i- ì sportsman performance (matrix component
Y)
X11- 1st factor meaning by i –ì sportsman performance (
X matrix component), I=1,2..,m
Calculating vector A by condition (2) can be exercised by the methods of
unconditional minimization. If the kind of the model (1) is unknown beforehand
(it is the most frequent case)then it is presented as the regression equation:
(3)
à1 –
the first component of the vector A
zi
– 1ST conditional factor presenting any factor (for example zi
= x1 ) and its functional transformation (for example zi =
x1,2 ) or combination of factors (for example zi= x1,
x2), at that zi =1.
Using condition (2) to the models (3) for calculating vector A can be
presented in matrix view:
A
=(ZT Z)-1 ZT Y,
Z-
conditional factors matrix, forming on matrix X and containing N columns ( by
number of performances) and m columns corresponding conditional factors zi
=1,2…, m , at that the first column of matrix Z- single, Y- column of
matrix grade.
Forecasting of sportsman’s performance effectiveness by the models (1)
or (3) is exercised by substitution in its factor meanings xi, I=1,2…, m, corresponding
sportsman performance conditions in coming matches, and calculating forecasting grade meaning yïð ,
then its possible to accept based solutions about passing the sportsman to the
given events or necessity of any other measures.
In that way, usage of developed
method allow considerably raise exactness of forecasting the sportsman’s
performance effectiveness in competitions and provide based solutions about
possibility of performance that or another sportsman in coming matches in
highest levels.
For developing computer aided control system by the calculation in
forecasting method performance of sportsmen in competitions such programs were
used:
Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0
Service Pack 6 –was used by way of essential means of interface supplement, and
also as interaction with essential machinery of operation systems;
-
Relational Microsoft Access- was used
for keeping information about sportsmen;
-
Technology Microsoft ADO - ActiveX
Data Object- was used for access to the data keeping in informational base;
Microsoft Excel-
was used by way of automation server for technical calculation
Developed application allows:
-To get the result on the base of which we can make assumption about if
a sportsman can show the best result on the coming competitions or can’t;
- to get additional facts and basis for making decisions by a coach
before sportsman performance on the competitions;
- with the help of application a sportsman can keep track quantitative
and qualitative changes in his performances;
- compare his activities with other sportsmen and to correct problem
sides;
- it can essentially reduce financial costs marking out on a sportsman
performance;
- to solve the problem of sportsman readiness to the event.
In that way, listed above
facts are the development of
informational techniques and professional sport in the world.