THE GEOPOLITICS OF POST - SOVIET TIME AND ITS
PROBLEMS
Absattarov R.B. - The head of political science and social
–economic disciplines’ department of Institute of a magistracy and PhD of the
Kazakh National Pedagogical University named after Abai, the doctor of
philosophical science, professor
Politicians show great attention for the geopolitics
of Post -Soviet time and are also strongly interested in it.
Post-Soviet
space is a set of spaces formed at the place of the disintegrated Soviet Union.
It includes the geopolitical space of such states as Russia, Belarus, Ukraine,
Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan.
In this connection, it should be noted that there is no
doubt in the fact that the new post-Soviet states having the opportunity to
define themselves the own national interests and therefore to choose their
allies, the trade and economic partnerships, etc. became truly the equal factors
of the world politics. They had a much broader prospects for cooperation in
economic, political and security issues than ever before. It is not surprising
that, they seek to diversify its foreign relations, looking for alternatives to
China, South Asia, the Islamic world, Europe and the USA[1].
The main objectives of the post-Soviet geopolitics is
the formation of a new system of interstate relations in the post-Soviet space.
In this connection, it is necessary to consider the basic characteristics of
the former Soviet Union.
First of all we should say that, the Commonwealth of
Independent States (the Baltic republics it was not originally included) created
instead of USSR has a rather formal character, despite the allied interstate
institutions such as political, economic, military and political (the Council
of Heads of State, Prime ministries, the ministries of defense, etc.).
In this connection it should be noted that, there is
not any single geopolitical space, except that such may be called the Russian
Federation and Belarus (the Union State of Belarus and Russia)to some extent,
Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kirghizia. The rest of the post-Soviet
states are guided by other geo-political centers of power: the United States
(Ukraine, Georgia, Turkmenistan), Europe (Ukraine, Moldova), in Turkey
(Azerbaijan), the Islamic State of Asia (Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan),
on China.
It must be said that, we haven’t the integration of a
single economic space. It was not possible to create, despite the strong and
interdependent economic ties and the relations established between the
territorial and economic spaces in the USSR. Although in September 1993 signed
a Treaty of Economic Union, and in subsequent years made about
100 legal acts (various treaties, agreements, decisions) to strengthen
integration ties within the CIS, the desired results in the creation of a
unified infrastructure were not reached.
Moreover, the CIS was divided into several local
economic blocs:
The first block of the GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine,
Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova);
The second block of the Central Asian Economic
Community (Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan);
The third block of the Eurasian Economic Community
(Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kirghizia);
The fourth block of the Customs Union (Russia,
Belarus, and Kazakhstan).
The fifth block of the Union State of Belarus and
Russia;
The sixth unit SEA (Single Economic Area) - Russia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine.
It should be noted that, there isn’t any single
geo-strategic space. The military-strategic space was not maintained. The
Collective Security Treaty (CST), which was initially signed in May 1992, by
almost all CIS countries, further prolonged, only six - Russia, Belarus,
Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kirghizia. As for Georgia, Azerbaijan and
Uzbekistan, they have suspended their membership, reorienting its geopolitics
to other strategic partners (member states of NATO, GUUAM). Including failed to
create a common space of air defense (AD), significantly reduced the security
of the CIS as a whole. At the same time GUUAM countries are trying to create
their own military-strategic space. Ukraine and Georgia are being asked to join
NATO. On the territory of Uzbekistan and Kirghizia U.S. already have military bases.
In this connection it should be said, that Russia's
intention at the beginning of the XXI century to integratethe CIS space turns into the big financial-economic,
fiscal stress. This is explained by the fact that, many CIS countries have
shifted to other states such as the EU, USA, Turkey and China. First of all,
this provision applied to the countries of the Commonwealth, which have rich
natural resources (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan,
Azerbaijan). In addition, these countries are conducting, as well as Russia, a
policyof expert and raw materials, are
the likely competitors of Russia.
Therefore, Russia's attempts to preserve the economic
and military-strategic integrity of the cost a great price, resulting in:
failure to return billions of dollars of debt, requests and demands of
restructuring overdue debts (of course, to decrease) the unauthorized
"pumping" of the Russian raw material gas and the nave of wires
passing on the territory of other CIS countries (especially Ukraine).
It should be noted that, in spite of the
disintegration process, Russia has retained the chances of integration around themselves
the CIS countries[2]. In this matter they had two objective reasons: first, a
favorable geopolitical position of Russia, the largest area, the transport
infrastructure; outputs to the western and eastern trade centers and routes,
seaports, only Russia shares a border with all the countries of the
Commonwealth of Independent States, and secondly, Russia's population is more
than half the population of the CIS countries, and thirdly, Russia's GDP is
over 75% of the GDP of the CIS countries (for example, more than in Ukraine,
eight times), and fourthly, production and business in the CIS have developed
in the Soviet times and is still heavily intertwined around the Russian
companies, in industrial processes, manufacturing of components involved at the
same time the company of several post-Soviet countries, fifth, trade in
manufactured and agricultural goods of almost all post-Soviet countries tend to
focus on the CIS markets, in largely due to its low knowledge-intensity and low
competitiveness in world markets.
However, it is worth noting that the chances of Russia
will be able to use especially in the case of modernization of its economy
based on innovation, the reorientation of the economy with raw materials for
production of high-tech, high technology and competitive products.
Thus, in my opinion, the formation of a full educated
integration in the area of the CIS did not work and is unlikely in the near
future. The CIS states, according to their own interests and achievements of
international obligations, determine the shape and extent of their
participation in the Commonwealth of Independent States. At the time when the
common interests is becoming less and adopted within the CIS common decisions
and documents are becoming more declarative, formal, emphasis is placed on the
bilateral interstate relations. ThisrelatestoRussia, KazakhstanandotherCIScountries.
The optimal model in this situation is a balanced mix
of ambition and integration processes and bilateral relations in a bilateral
format. However, bilateral relations between Russia and other CIS countries are
far from the desired level and are accompanied by controversy. Also we should
not forget that from the point of view of U.S. and the Western world’s geostrategy, if Russia tries to expand the field of its geopolitical
influence at the expense of the "near abroad", then as written in the
book "The Grand Chessboard" by Brzezinski, it will be perceived as a
"rebirth of imperial ambitions," with consequences.
It should be said, that the state of the Commonwealth
of Independent States and the relationship of the countries within it, can be
clearly seen on the examples of Russia's relations with other member states of
the CIS[3].
The relationship between Russia and Belarus. Belarus
is situated to the west of Russia. Also borders on Lithuania, Ukraine and
Poland and member of NATO and the EU. Belarus is the country with an Orthodox-Slavic
culture, part of the confederation of Education (the Union State of Belarus and
Russia - from 1999), which is largely formal and declarative. Russia through
Belarus with advantagescommunicates with its enclave Kalinagradsk area, as doing
it through Lithuania was much more problematic. Belarus is the geostrategic
ally of Russia, the western boundary of the strategic deterrence of NATO.
Through Belarus Russia is trading line with the European Union (more than half
the turnover).
In this connection, it should be noted, that the
obstacles of real unification of the two states can be attributed to
differences in political systems (authoritarian Belarus has the features of, in
Russia is a more democratic political system), the differences in economic
systems (the economy of Belarus is not a market in the strict sense, the
administrative strictly controlled and regulated by the state), the differences
in approaches to taxation and pricing policies, as well as the absence of a
single currency.
The relationship between Russia and Ukraine.
Geopolitically Ukraine is located between Russia and Poland, as a member of
NATO and the EU. The country with weak historical traditions of statehood,
which is almost exclusively formed. The state with the Twisted culture, as
there is civilizational cultural rift between the Western Christian (Western
Ukraine) and the Eastern Orthodox Christian culture (east and south of
Ukraine). Hence the identity of the Ukrainians with different orientation, on
the one hand, to the West (Europe), on the other to the East (Russia).
In regard to geo-strategic alliance with Ukraine, Russia
is beneficial and necessary (the Black Sea and further into the Balkans, the
trade routes to Europe). But recently, Ukraine is guided not by Russia, and the
European Union and the United States, trying to forcefully enter into the
European structures and NATO. At the same time trying to get economic aid from
the West, while the economic benefits from the Russian side.
The geopolitical relations of Russia with Ukraine is
not so close as with Belarus and also they have the character of partnership,
but not allied. Moreover, there are many contradictions and conflicts, such as:
on the Crimea, Sevastopol and the Black Sea Fleet, the active participation of
Ukraine in the GUUAM is not conducive to creating a common economic space of
the CIS, Ukraine's economic sanctions against Prednistrovia in the spring of
2006 caused economic harm to Russia and its trade relations with Prednistrovia,
the gas conflict between Russia and the situation Borderland (for example, as
late as 2005 with "Gazprom"); Ukraine supported the U.S. actions in
Iraq (unlike Russia) and sent a military contingent.
The relations between Russia on the part of the
Caucasus.The geopolitical region of the Caucasus belongs to the so-called
southern "underbelly" of Russia and plays an important geo-strategic
importance role. It includes Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is also
characterized by extreme volatility and instability of the geopolitical situation
in the Caucasus.
Despite the historically established traditional
geopolitical presence of Russia in this region, the current Russian
geopolitical influence is limited and it is faced with several difficulties,
lack of understanding of the new authorities, the periodic emergence of
conflicts and serious conflicts. Strengthening of the situation is not
conducive to even the presence of peacekeeping troops and border troops of
Russia, performing a difficult mission to prevent violent conflicts and border
security.
The main problems and controversies in the Caucasus
region include: loss of a former Russian influence in the region became a
center of geopolitical, economic and other interests of many power centers
(U.S., EU, Turkey, Iran, etc.), unsettled political situation (especially in
Georgia), unresolved territorial disputes (especially Karabakh) conflicts
(political, territorial, religious and ethnic) ethnic, religious and cultural
hostility (especially between Armenia and Azerbaijan) and there are also many
ways of transnational crime (drug trafficking, arms trafficking); one of the
places of extremism and international terrorism, the desire to solve many
problems at the expense of Russia, which (since the collapse of the Soviet
Union) blamed for the economic problems, political, territorial and religious
and ethnic conflicts.
The most complicated relationship of Russia is with
Georgia. The Georgian government leads openly anti-Russian policy.
Geo-strategically, Georgia is focused on U.S. and to the Atlantic policy. At
the same time Russia is trying to use in their own economic purposes (raw
materials, feed-in tariffs), etc.
U.S. supports anti-Russian policy of Georgia. In
December 2002 an agreement was signed on cooperation in defense sphere between
Georgia and the U.S. government, under which U.S. troops could remain in
Georgian territory. The U.S. government officially supports Georgia's demands
for early withdrawal of Russian military bases. The United States provided
financial assistance to Georgia in the amount of approximately 150 million
dollars. a year (in particular, finance salaries of civil servants). TheGeorgiansoldiersaretrainedonAmericanmoney.
The relationships of Russia with Armenia and
Azerbaijan isformed better, although the latter (Azerbaijan) and focuses
primarily on other geo-political centers of power (Turkey, Iran, the Islamic
world). However, these relationships complicates the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia is trying to implement a mediation mission.
The relationships of Russia with the countries of
Central Asia. The geopolitical region of Central Asia is also refered to the
so-called southern "underbelly" of Russia and is also characterized
by extreme volatility and instability of the geopolitical situation. Central Asian
geopolitical region includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan
and Kirghizia, the former Soviet republics in the USSR. However, only
Kazakhstan, Kirghizia and Tadzhikstan are included in the close geopolitical and geostrategic cooperation with
Russia. The other countries shifted to other geo-political power centers.
In the system of economic relations between the
countries of Central Asia "scattered" in different economic alliances
and blocs, groups: Uzbekistan to GUUAM, Central Asian Economic Community (along
with Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Tajikistan), Kazakhstan to the Central Asian
Economic Community (along with Kirghizia, Uzbekstan, Tadzhikstan), the Eurasian
economic Community (along with Tajikistan and Kirghizia), etc.
In the system of geo-strategic relations of the
Collective Security Treaty (CST) prolonged Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and
Kirghizia. Uzbekistan refused to renew the participation, and Turkmenistan has
not joined to it at once, declaring the neutral status. In recent years a trend
towards the revitalization of the CST, as depositions, including the return of
its members in Uzbekistan.
The geopolitical relations in the region are
characterized by a number of problems and contradictions: first, the presence
of conflict (economic, political, territorial, ethnic), and secondly, the
elements of ethnic, religious and cultural hostility (especially between
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kirghizia) and thirdly, the zone of
instability and conflict, drug road, arms trafficking, and fourthly, the zone
of proliferation of radical Islamic ideas, fifthly, the desire to solve many
problems at the expense of Russia, which since the collapse of the Soviet Union
blamed for economic problems political, territorial, religious and ethnic conflicts.
It should be said, that Russia has differences with
the states of the Caspian region such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan (as well as
Azerbaijan and Iran) on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, the control of
energy resources.
The relationship of Russia with the Baltic countries.
After the collapse of the USSR and the formation of the Baltic Soviet Union republics
of the Baltic States such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, the region's
geopolitical zones of influence of Russia has been transformed into a zone of
geopolitical influence and interests of the U.S. and the EU (especially Germany
as a leader in investment and sales turnover).
In this connection it should be noted, that Russia has
geopolitical interests in this region such as a liaison with its enclave Kaliningrad,
the provision of Russian-speaking population interests, to achieve stability of
the geopolitical and geostrategic situation in the region, non-infringement of
Russian military and defense policy interests in expanding NATO's eastward
enlargement, the Baltic Sea. With the collapse of the Soviet Union fell from
the coastline of 2000 km and 600 km. It remains only two major sea ports – St. Petersburg
and Kaliningrad, and the naval port of Baltic, transit route for Russian goods.
However, the implementation of Russian geopolitical
interests in the region is extremely difficult.
If for the Western countries the geopolitical
situation in the Baltic States, perhaps more than ever favorable, but in Russia
are not. We are talking about a possible strategic alliance or partnership at
least in this area do not even go. Moreover, it is not possible to find a
normal partnership economic, political, diplomatic and cultural relations. This
is despite the fact that the economy Baltic countries dependent on Russian raw
materials, especially energy, and the payment of Russia for the transit of
goods through their territory of more than $ 1 billion a year. There are
territorial claims against Russia. The geopolitical situation is fraught with
conflict rather than improving relations in all fields.
"Wanting a calm yourself, pray for peace
around" - wrote the medieval Buddhist monk Nitiren. This maxim is
particularly relevant for countries in post-Soviet area, which is easier and
cheaper to deal with a politically stable and economically prosperous regions.
CIS members are interested in creating a zone of friendly and peace-loving
nations around the perimeter of its borders, preventing the conversion of
former Soviet republics in the area of territorial, ethnic, religious and other
conflicts. In today's world, any real regional integration is driven by a
certain idea or a geographical, historical, cultural, political or other
peoples of the proximity of the respective states. The main condition for
successful regional integration in post-Soviet space is the coincidence of
economic interests, etc[4].
In conclusion, we should say that nowadays there is not
only changesin the geopolitical structure of the inner and outer boundaries of
the former Soviet Union, but also the role of this region in the world in whole.
The task of modern geopolitics of the former Soviet Union is to justify the
national interests of countries in the region, the contents of which included
the needs of society in terms of biological, political, and economic life as a
social and cultural integrity. The geopolitical issues are the most important
for all post-Soviet states and to successfully move forward and should be
addressed in a timely manner. And there is also important geopolitical position
of Kazakhstan to solve the problems of many post-Soviet countries and the
world.
Literature
1. Гаджиев К.С. Геополитика. – М.,2012.- с.227-426.
2. Козьменко В.М. Россия в системе СНГ: форма сотрудничества// Ежегодник СНГ:
проблемы, поиск, решения.- М., 2012.- С. 49-59.
3. Гурьева А.Н. Интеграционные процессы на постветском пространстве и роль
России// Ежегодник СНГ: проблемы, поиск, решения.- М., 2011.- с. 96-108.
4. Гурова И.П.Экономическая модель региональной торговли СНГ// Ежегодник СНГ:
проблемы, поиск, решения.- М., 2010.- С. 97-104.