Modeling of GDP energy intensity as factor to increase economic security.

Экономические науки/8. Математические методы в экономике

Lavrenchuk Valentyna

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

In the article is applied cluster analysis to identify common features in the implementation of energy efficient technologies. On the basis of the studies suggested ways to improve energy saving policy.

Energy intensity of GDP - a measure which is defined as the ratio of consumption of energy resources (usually conventional oil equivalent) to the actual gross domestic product of the state, calculated at purchasing power parity.

, where

- Energy intensity of GDP;

- The total cost of energy resources in the conventional oil equivalent;

- Gross domestic product, as defined in USA$ at purchasing power parity.

In order to explore the similarities energy saving policy CIS, EU, Group of Eight and representatives of OPEC held clustering data on a group of 40 countries. Using hierarchical cluster analysis by the method of intergroup relations and preliminary standardization of variables using z-scales, we obtain the distribution of the optimum number of clusters. Scatter Chart for variable energy intensity of GDP and GDP per capita confirms the consistency of the results and helps in describing the profiles of clusters. Thus, the distribution of the 7 clusters (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Scatter Chart, built according to the intensity of GDP and GDP at PPP, calculated per capita
Source: elaboration of the author, constructed according Key World Energy Statistics. International Energy Agency, 2011

In the first cluster hit Iceland. This cluster is characterized by low energy efficiency, but high levels of GDP per capita. Inefficient use of resources additionally slowed recovery after breaking bubble in late 2008, which was caused by huge levels of debt the four largest banks in the country.

The second cluster is formed by Canada and the U.S.A. These countries are characterized by an average level of energy efficiency and high GDP per capita. The considerable mineral deposits in these countries, as well as aggressive involvement of primary energy resources from other countries, allows postponing the issue of efficient use of energy resources. The relatively low price of fuel and its overuse - are common for these countries.

The third cluster is formed by countries such as Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands. Members of this cluster are characterized by the highest level of GDP per capita and the best indicators of efficient energy use. Analyzing the energy sector in different countries, it should be noted that for members of the third cluster inherent high level of alternative energy. Such as, Denmark only by wind energy provides 21.3% of all electricity in the network, Sweden by biomass produced 20-25% of the heat. [5, p.70]

The fourth cluster includes countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan. These countries are approaching the relevant characteristics of the countries cluster 3. In most cases, this is developed industrial countries and these countries form the basis of an international association G8.

The fifth cluster contains the largest number of countries. It is a country with high energy efficiency, but relatively low GDP per capita.

The sixth group includes countries such as Moldova, Belarus and Estonia. They are characterized by a relatively low GDP per capita and average efficiency.

Seventh group of countries (the worst in the appropriate characteristics) contains Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. They are characterized by a high level of energy intensity and low GDP per capita. The first three countries are countries PER extraction, and therefore questions of good fuel consumption for these countries at this stage is not a priority. For Ukraine, stays in the group due to the peculiarities of the sectoral structure of the economy, namely the presence of energy-intensive industries such as metallurgy and production of fertilizers. However, being in this cluster is a matter of time, because high price of basic energy resources is a real incentive for the modernization of fixed assets.

Literature:

1. Key World Energy Statistics. International Energy Agency, 2011.

2. Енергоефективність як ресурс інноваційного розвитку: Національна доповідь про стан та перспективи реалізації державної політики енергоефективності у 2008 році / С.Ф. Єрмілов, В.М. Геєць, Ю.П Ященко, В.В. Григоровський, В.Е. Лір та ін. – К., НАЕР, 2009. – 93с.

3. Лавренчук В.А. Важливість питання енергоефективності для економіки України // Вісник Київського національного університету дизайну та технологій. - Київ, «Вісник КНУТД». – 2010. – №5 (т.5) – С. 81-88.

4. Суходоля О. М. Енергоємність валового внутрішнього продукту: тенденції та чинники впливу // Зб. наук. пр. Національної академії державного управління при Президентові України. – 2003– № 2 – C.140-149.

5. Лавренчук В.А. Систематизация факторов енергосбережения// Экономика, социология и право: журнал научных публикаций. –№ 12 (декабрь),  2011  г. – Москва : Изд-во «Литера», 2011. – С. 59-60.