Postgraduate Filiakova T.I.
V.N.Karazin
Kharkiv national university, Ukraine
Cyclicity as a universal form
of economic dynamics
The study of the issues of some system’s movements or
developments is necessary above all to formulate effective development trends
of the system, in order to apply the derived results in practice for effective
and optimal system’s performance. Such
an investigation is possible subjected to review and further use of the basic
development laws and the essential characteristics of the system itself, in
this case – the dynamics of the system. The modern world is characterized by
dynamics of both economic and social and any other processes in society, by the
transformation of the society economic basis and its productive forces and production
relations. Such dynamics of the economic system in general and the development
of the society in particular may occur due to certain features characteristic
of the industrial stage of development. There are societies with fundamentally
new transformed form of the productive forces and [1, C. 180] with principally
new form of the resource base main elements, which moved from the traditional
objects of the environments to informational technology. Such rapid modern life
dynamics is due not least to the rapid development of the information
technology. It is characterized by: continuous emergence of new forms of the
production processes, different industries, and types of services, reducing the
required number of manufacturing operations per unit of time and per worker.
The negative sides of such an accelerated rate of modern dynamics of economic
systems are the growth of high uncertainty and volatility of economic activity.
Thus, today we are witnesses of a new leap of the
post-industrial society to the new technological one, with attributes of
information, increasing role of human factors, uncertainty and risk.
On this background the issue of continual
research and reflection characteristics of economic processes
development cyclicity closely intertwined with all the processes
taking place in society becomes more urgent. If this
requirement does not meat contemporary realities, it greatly
reduces, and sometimes just makes scientific assessment of the economy
and society’s effective development capacity in general, making
trends based on existing patterns of development, development of ways
out of crisis, development of forecasts impossible. The
term cyclical process as a process of a historical cycle, with
the underlying principle of periodization and repetition originated in
antiquity and at the beginning was basically
a mythological-religious form (considered in terms of the
seasons, day and night, etc.). Similar ideas of cyclic circuit was
widely spread in ancient China, ancient Egypt, Babylon, as well
as developed by ancient philosophers and historians, moreover questions of
cycles were widely used among researchers in the fields
like mathematics, physics, etc. Ibn Khaldun Arabic thinker of
14-15 centuries was one of the first contributors to the development
of cycling issues and sequential change in certain
epochs. For example, he singled out 4 epochs in the history
of the world, associated with the activities of various
people. In each of these periods he tried
to identify patterns of development and decline of
culture, a change of dynasties, etc.
Historical periodization of the research
process of the cyclical issues can be systematized
into three basic steps: first - the second half of the
19th century –The period of the first scientific understanding
of phenomenon cycles existence and the actual first scientific interest in
this subject. Second
phase (early and mid-20th century.) - the
scientific stage of the cyclicity theory formation, the first
attempts to systematize statistical information to support cycling of
the entire economy, identifying onset patterns and course
of the crises in industrial production with examples of the
crises in the European states and removing the causes
of the cyclical crisis in the form
of over-expansion of trade. Third and current stage is the
second half of the 20th century - attention transfer
from the cyclicity essence to the side of counter-cyclical
policies, criticism of the cycle’s theory.
The researchers studuing the issues of
cyclicity can be divided into two relatively opposing groups: those
who support the cyclic structure of the universe and
the economy in particular, and those who reject
the subordination of all matter to cyclical type of
development.
The representatives of the first direction treat an
the cycle itself as an integral of the universe from
the primordial movement of all things, that is, a
priori, the existing form of development or movement of matter
or a system. The representatives of the second trend,
however, believe that the cycles are not the
essence and basis of the matter existence, but some
change that occurs due to random external influences. This
view is widely spread in modern
Western neoclassical school, where, in particular they believe
that the cause of the cyclicity affects on a model of
the impulse or shock, that
is, cycling is not the essence, but a consequence
of some independent pulses. The nature of
such "distrust" to cycling as a structural
characteristic of the original system can not be explained
by clear and accurate prediction of the imminent round
of the cycle, either decline or rise. And now
scientists have to agree with the presence of cycling
in the economic development.
There are a lot of factors describing the reasons
for recurrence of crisis and the economic life of
society, but the underlying cause may be found in
the factors leading to disparity in aggregate demand and
supply.
The
imbalances themselves generating inconsistency in aggregate
demand and supply are caused by to the disparity of
interest’s major players at the macroeconomic level. Hence,
basic economic disparities relative to the chain of consumption
- savings – investment obtained.
Thus, the present interpretation of
the cyclical nature as the universal form of economic
dynamics is of applied nature of research. Investigation of
cycling dynamics issues, its causality is not systemic
in nature, makes it impossible to systematize the universal
nature of economic dynamics. From the standpoint of economic
theory we generally understand a process a certain historical cycle, with
the underlying principle of periodization and repetition as a
cyclicity. Accordingly, the cyclical development is nothing more
than a consideration of the economic dynamics -
consideration of the system parameters in space and time and space
- time dimension is an aspect of the dynamics. Further direction
of development of this approach is to develop an indicating
system that would ensure the transition to a new stage of
development, or make it possible to foresee reason of recession,
growth and how to overcome or achieve it.
Literature:
1.
Елецкий
Н.Д. Политическая экономия современной цивилизации. Спецкурс для студентов
экономических специальностей. Ростов-на-Дону 2000. с.-180.