Usahev U.A., Levterova A. I.
Donetsk National University of economics and trade
named after Mikhailo Tugan - Baranovsky
Hryvnia and its stability at the present stage
It is noted that in Ukraine in recent times is the devaluation of the
hryvnia. According to the latest forecast by the National Bank of Ukraine is
well known that in the first days of autumn ukrainian hryvnia began its active
decline, which barely managed to stop at the moment.
Hryvnia stability maintained artificially at the last gasp of the
National Bank. Hryvnia devaluation is inevitable, but it gradually spend NBU is
not. The currency will stand before the election, and then he abruptly
collapse.
Many financial analysts say that after the elections in October 2012 to
come to the stability of the hryvnia, but the question at the moment is controversial.
The pessimistic scenario is largely dependent on external factors: the
IMF's tough stance, the continuation of the gas dispute with Russia concerning
inflated energy prices, slowing global economy and further deterioration of the
export situation.
The devaluation of the hryvnia long inevitable, remains an open question
just what it is capable of the central bank to hold it steadily, with the least
damage to the citizens and the banking sector.
It should be noted that the torque - one of the two currencies in Europe
(along with the Albanian), which is tightly linked to the U.S. dollar, and in
fact does not have a corridor in which its course could change under the
influence of macroeconomic factors. Until the end of the year, according to
experts, Ukrainian national currency may weaken to 8.5 hryvnia to the dollar,
in the deteriorating trends in the world economy and maintain parity between
key international currencies. The most popular forecast, according to some
analysts - it does not wobble hryvnia 8,3-8,6 up to the elections to the
Parliament, after which followed the weakening of the mark 8,80-9,10 in 2013.
The main factors that lead to instability hryvnia:
1. the national debt. Analysts point to the fact that before each
service debt to the IMF, the hryvnia exchange rate / dollar does not change in
favor of the Ukrainian currency by 8 - 12 cents. Before the Law of the year
Ukraine will pay 2 - $ 2.5 billion of the total loan amount.
2. Russian gas is the second factor that may affect the hryvnia. There
is a risk that "Gazprom" on the eve of the heating season will put
pressure on Ukraine in connection with a smaller amount of gas that will be
purchased for the following year. But at the same time, an investigation by the
EU on Russian gas giant, could restrain fervor management.
In the life of the Ukrainian currency soon clearly a turning point. It
is no secret that this will be the Equator's parliamentary elections, scheduled
for late October. However, the fate of our money so far is a puzzle. The
question of how much will be devalued, the hryvnia, remains open. Experts
unanimously say that before the fall elections will not happen, so until the
end of October financiers predict a rate of 8 hryvnia to the dollar.
During the football Euro -2012 Ukrainian authorities to make predictions
on the role model of the hryvnia.
Sustained reduction in the production and export will be continued
because of the deteriorating external economic environment and the unresolved
key internal problems hindering economic activity in Ukraine.
Import growth far ahead of export growth - 2.7% versus 6.6% only in the
first half, and the current account deficit of about $ 1.6 billion.
These results were typical of 2007-2008, but then the current account
deficit was covered by huge inflow of currency in the financial account as
readily lend Ukraine international banks.
The decrease in GDP growth not only reduces the foreign currency
earnings from exports, but also reduces the flow of foreign investments, which
contribute significantly to the stabilization of the balance of payments.
Now naturally growing trend to an outflow of capital from the country,
since the prospects of development of the country is very bleak: the country's
ongoing political crisis, the economy plunges into another recession, and the
government demonstrated unwillingness to reform, which could significantly
improve the business climate.
Most experts omechayut so far, the National Bank managed to artificially
maintain the stability of the hryvnia, but it is almost completely exhausted
its reserves. Last year, the National Bank of defiance to the three fundamental
tendencies restrained the hryvnia. And it cost him only last year minus $ 9
billion in gold reserves, which fell from $ 38 billion to $ 29 billion, and
continue to decline. But, sooner or later, the possibility of the bank's
foreign exchange reserves will be exhausted. In this case, the amount that
shall be published by the National Bank, as its foreign exchange reserves,
mostly not bystrolikvidnye reserve is a reserve, which is stored in the
securities of other countries, bonds and precious metals. They can not be sold
quickly, and then come up with a currency earnings in the currency market to pay
off a large fire. Clarifies that it is not just a problem of the present
composition of the Cabinet, and all the Ukrainian government for 20 years of
independence. We must pursue the economic policy as such. And according to many
financial experts in the country now virtually all the 20 years of
independence, there is no policy at all.
Literature:
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School" 2008
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Moscow "Finance and Statistics," 2005
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investments. Analysis reporting. , 2nd edition, revised. and add. -M.: Finance
and Statistics, 2006
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"Accounting Industry" Moscow "Finance and Statistics" 2003